The NFL bye week is actually a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough awareness of. When you consider yourself a novice sports bettor, and you also spot the kind of betting line containing you quickly on the way to Google News along with your favorite sports stat site to see if a player is injured, don’t forget to also notice if that team’s opponent is coming off a bye. For people advanced sports bettors struggling with the bye week, I’ll cover some higher level research and insights about the bye in this article. Just before getting to that, I’ll address some general points for anybody uncertain what a bye week is, or on which weeks teams have byes.
While you probably know, sbo contains each team playing 16 games. In 1990, the league changed into a 17 week season so that you can profit more from television advertising. This left each team using a single week off sooner or later in the season called a bye week. The bye week used to be random spanning within the entire season, nevertheless in 2004 to make a more uniform agenda for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it operates now could be bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll have to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, since they have the main benefit of more time to relax, improve your health, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in your analysis, an additional area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season there exists a single Thursday night game, and on Thanksgiving there are two additional Thursday day games. Which means that on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is truly the case both for teams; therefore it is not something to be concerned about. Where it might be a concern will be the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and may achieve a similar advantage to the main one they already have coming from a bye week. Make certain when you make bets on the NFL to cover attention both to teams coming off the bye, and to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Given that this isn’t articles about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t go deep into it in considerably more detail than to make a single statement and then support it. That statement: the more effective a team is, the greater they gain benefit from the bye week. This is not a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis the best odds makers understand. To offer you a compact clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is a multiplier depending on power rankings. All teams gain benefit from the bye week, but how much they benefit is proportional to how good of any team they can be.
In the event the above statement reaches all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some fundamental stats about how exactly well teams coming from the bye week have fared that will assist you understand the lines just a little better.
Within the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one single team is on its way from the bye, they coming from the bye includes a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re considering betting teams coming off the bye since the past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of times, read my article on the current betting market. A method like that may have worked in 2006; but, more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. It is because today NFL betting line is significantly more efficient, along with the market will likely correct itself.
The typical ATS information is nice, however it doesn’t tell us much unless we break it down further. After doing this, a far more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming away from the bye week that happen to be favored use a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off of the bye possess a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is rather small, but 15-1-2 against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To share a remote stat away from a post I wrote a few dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (spanning a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of times.
To return to and have more accurate 4 year numbers for all favorites coming from the bye, there are 9 games missing in the 110 sample size I used. It is because 9 times since 2007 there are games where both teams were coming away from the bye. (32×4=128), I purchased the 110 sample size because 18 from the byes were not highly relevant to opening discussion.
Your data here strongly supports that good teams enjoy the bye over the current market is offering them credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the highway in the NFL. Using just road favorites is a little quirky, however, plus some might contemplate it “data mining”, even if this trend is well founded when dating back much beyond 2007. If we’re gonna really see this detailed, though, we have to take a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s included in the spread.